Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the two films for the week.
Kinds of Kindness
The film is directed by Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things, The Favourite and The Lobster) from a screenplay he co-wrote with Efthimis Filippou. The film stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer. The film is described as a "triptych fable", and consists of three distinct but loosely connected stories.
The Bikeriders
The film is written and directed by Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter, Mud, Midnight Special and Loving), and stars Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.. It tells a fictional story inspired by the 1967 photo-book of the same name by Danny Lyon depicting the lives of the Outlaws MC, a Chicago-based motorcycle gang.
Now that you've met this week's new releases. Let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
-
The two collaborations between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone have produced great results for arthouse dramas; The Favourite made $95 million while Poor Things earned $117 million. It's got a very recognizable cast joining as well. It already premiered in Cannes, where it had a favorable response. Searchlight also kept the budget low at $15 million.
-
Biker gang films are rarely explored, and with a very recognizable cast, perhaps the audience would be interested in a small-scale drama. Nichols is also a sign of the quality, and the film currently has some great reviews.
CONS
-
Kinds of Kindness is an anthology film, which is a genre that has not been very popular in theaters. The last notable success of the genre was Sin City, which not only is 19 years old, but its sequel flopped years later. And while we mentioned it had a favorable response from Cannes, it's not exactly hailed as a fantastic film (6.6 average rating on RT and 71 on Metacritic suggests solid but not spectacular). And the reviews confirm the film is not as accessible as Poor Things or The Favourite.
-
Biker gang films aren't popular in theaters. There hasn't been much success in that genre since Wild Hogs back in 2007, and that was a much more accessible comedy starring bigger box office draws. While the cast is recognizable, none are proven box office draws by themselves, despite Butler's rise in the past few years. And while Nichols is a symbol of quality, nearly all of his films are box office failures (with Mud being his sole success and the only one above $30 million). It needs to over-perform to recoup its $40 million budget.
And here's the past results.
| Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | May 24 | Warner Bros. | $45,443,378 | $149,213,403 | $352,304,347 |
| The Garfield Movie | May 24 | Sony | $58,104,545 | $158,836,363 | $391,090,909 |
| Young Woman and the Sea | May 31 | Disney | $4,700,000 | $12,855,555 | $21,587,500 |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | June 7 | Sony | $63,437,500 | $180,437,500 | $389,200,000 |
| The Watchers | June 7 | Warner Bros. | $15,333,333 | $41,708,333 | $71,291,666 |
| Inside Out 2 | June 14 | Disney | $119,447,368 | $390,444,444 | $900,000,000 |
Next week, we're predicting A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1.
No comments:
Post a Comment