Before you comment, read these two rules:
1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.
2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each pro and con.
Ballerina (No, we ain't including the lame long title)
The film is directed by Len Wiseman (Underworld, Live Free or Die Hard, and Total Recall) and written by Shay Hatten. It is the fifth film in the John Wick franchise, serving as a spin-off set between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4. It stars Ana de Armas, Gabriel Byrne, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, Anjelica Huston, Lance Reddick, Ian McShane, and Keanu Reeves. In the film, Eve Macarro, a ballerina-assassin, begins to train in the assassin traditions of the Ruska Roma and sets out to exact revenge for her father's death.
The Phoenician Scheme
The film is produced, written and directed by Wes Anderson (too many films to single out) from a story he conceived with Roman Coppola. The film stars an ensemble cast including Benicio del Toro, Mia Threapleton, Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, and Hope Davis. In the film, wealthy businessman Zsa-zsa Korda appoints his only daughter, a nun, as sole heir to his estate. As Korda embarks on a new enterprise, they soon become the target of scheming tycoons, foreign terrorists and determined assassins.
Now that you've met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
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The John Wick has been incredibly profitable for Lionsgate, with each film increasing from the previous one ($86.0M > $174.3M > $328.3M > $440.1M). If you're making a spin-off, you need a big name, and Ana de Armas is a good candidate for that. The trailers emphasized everything you come to love about this franchise: badass action. Lionsgate was also smart to have Keanu Reeves appear in the film and have it promoted across social media, although the extent of his role remains a mystery.
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Wes Anderson is one of the most recognizable directors working today. He has his own fans who will definitely pay to watch whatever he puts out. He's coming off Asteroid City, which had his biggest opening weekend domestically and closed with $54 million worldwide. The concept and marketing all look good so far.
CONS
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Last year, Furiosa tried to expand the Mad Max universe, but it massively flopped. It's unlikely Ballerina shares the same fate, but it's a point worth considering. Spin-offs usually grab a film's best character, but here, we never met the lead character before. Ana de Armas is definitely known, but she doesn't have a lot of box office success as leading lady (Knives Out was an ensemble). While Lionsgate has placed Keanu Reeves as much as possible on the marketing, it remains to be seen how much he will appear and if that will be enough to convince more audience members to watch this. It's also gonna compete with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for action fans. The film also had a troubling production, to the point that it was delayed a full year; Chad Stahelski oversaw 2-3 months of reshoots and filmed the majority of the film without Wiseman being present. Now, the audience doesn't care for BTS drama, but it indicates the film is struggling with the quality.
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Wes Anderson is iconic, but most of his films aren't box office hits (they usually profit after home media and streaming). Asteroid City opened big, but it didn't have good word of mouth to keep going. Anderson's past two films, Asteroid and The French Dispatch, were well received but reception wasn't as strong as his previous films. Will The Phoenician Scheme be different?
And here's the past results.
| Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Destination: Bloodlines | May 16 | Warner Bros. | $43,364,000 | $107,184,000 | $227,932,000 |
| Hurry Up Tomorrow | May 16 | Lionsgate | $6,159,090 | $14,752,272 | $25,445,454 |
| Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | May 23 | Paramount | $71,968,750 (3-day) $81,693,333 (4-day) | $227,468,571 | $665,082,857 |
| Lilo & Stitch | May 23 | Disney | $124,431,250 (3-day) $141,760,000 (4-day) | $431,377,142 | $1,006,488,571 |
| Karate Kid: Legends | May 30 | Sony | $47,572,222 | $132,305,555 | $284,278,947 |
| Bring Her Back | May 30 | A24 | $11,326,666 | $37,033,333 | $71,040,000 |
Next week, we're predicting How to Train Your Dragon, The Life of Chuck and Materialists.
REMINDER: The Phoenician Scheme opens on May 30 on limited release, but we're focusing solely on its wide debut on June 6.
So what are your predictions for these films?
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